#154 - The Data Detective and other things
I write this from my AIRBNB in Medellin, in the district of Laureles. It isn’t bad. A little small and no climate control except fans. But nice neighborhood. And the weather here is wonderful as always.
Christmas lights in the building across the street
I’ve had a number of conversations today about staying with AirBnB. I think this is my last stay if I can find hotels at a reasonable price. The hassle involved with AirBnB just doesn’t seem worth it to me. Having to pay extra to get regular cleaning and the extremely unfriendly attitude (of the company – not the individual owners) towards changing dates or cancelations … screw it. I’d rather just pay extra and have a hotel.
A frank admission to begin with. And this is not a cry for sympathy or anything. But I am utterly exhausted these days. It would appear that my thyroid medication is not working properly. I am waiting for a meeting with my doctor here to prescribe a different variant of thyroid medication. I have heard from numerous people, both doctors and people with the same condition, that it can take time to find the right type of thyroid medication that works. But in the meantime, my days seem to consist entirely of troughs from which I can barely rouse myself to do the minimum to get through the day. However … onwards.
My blog post today is about a book that I have recently read, The Data Detective, by Jim Harford.
Jim Harford also is one of the hosts of a podcast from the BBC called ‘More or Less’. I have written about this before. This is a podcast that dissects, brutally, various media headlines according to how badly they (or an organization or politicians) have mucked up a statistical issue. Which is most of the time.
After listening to the audio version of the book, I ended up buying the Kindle version. I would consider it essential reading for any educated person in this day and age. I have a degree in mathematics. I believe myself to have more than a passing understanding of statistics in general, although I do not consider myself an expert. But this book is really an eye opener.
This book, in very plain English, explains the major aspects that one should consider when reading about or considering anything these days that relies upon studies. “Studies”. A ubiquitous word in the press today, that is abused more often than not. I am naïve I guess in many ways. When I see the word ‘study’, what I assume is the following:
1. That the study is scientifically carried out.
2. That this study is performed with a statistically valid sample, i.e., large enough and diverse enough to adequately reflect the target population.
3. That the study is performed with adequate controls.
4. That this study is performed in such a way that biases are accounted for.
However, patently, especially after having read the numerous examples in this book, such is not the case.
Basically, once any sort of media (social or news, it matters not) gets hold of a report, they never ask any questions about validity of a study. If the study can be condensed to a one line, in-your-face, shocking headline, they go with it. They never dig deeper. The more ‘shocking’ it is, the LESS they dig, it seems.
One thing that the author wrote about that I definitely took note of, were online sites where one can go to validate scientific or social “studies”.
The Cochrane Collaboration (which mainly focuses on scientific studies), and the Campbell Collaboration, which focuses more on the social science type studies.
I have included the links for both sides below.
https://www.campbellcollaboration.org
His golden rule (other than his 10 major guidelines – I’ll let you read the book for those) is … BE CURIOUS. And I agree with him. I lack curiosity as many of you may know from reading earlier writings but he is absolutely right.
And his last chapter on this golden rule is surprisingly hopeful. He posits a technique which may be able to help dealing with people on the most toxic, tribal types of issues.
This is a incredibly short digest of a really interesting chapter but when dealing with something that is toxic, immigration, vaccination, gun control, etc., do two things:
1. Ask the person their understanding of the policies / issue in question, on a scale of 1 to 7 [1 = no knowledge, 7 = comprehensive knowledge]
2. Then ask them to explain the issue in detail
Most people really don’t understand what they feel so strongly about. This technique was shown to reduce the degree of radical support they might show for an issue or policy once they realize, through trying to explain it in detail, that they really don’t understand it. 😊 … How cool! I want to try this.
My closing remarks are probably not going to be very uplifting either. And maybe much of this comes out of my utter exhaustion that I am feeling these days. I’m not sure. But I’m hoping that writing about it might help.
I am utterly suffused with rage these days. I try very hard to control it. But when I see the absolute stupidity that is running rampant in the world these days I just want to explode. How can people be so obliviously brain dead?! And I have absolutely no idea what to do to mitigate any of this. And it is not just stupidity. It the outright greed and megalomania exhibited by so ‘leaders’ such as those idiots Putin, Xie Jinping, and others of their ilk. Well part of the problem there is that they are NOT idiots, just soaked in their own personal brand of Kool-Aid.
I had thought about taking a job with an international environmental firm, but I am hesitating. I actually spoke with my partners only a few weeks ago and basically got the all clear to pursue any kind of job opportunity that I desired, but I have noticed that I have hesitated to reach out to the company to say that I am now available. How much of that is my exhaustion and how much of that is simply that I don’t necessarily want to go back to a 9-5 type of environment, I cannot truly say.
And do I really want to go back to work in an environment where I am trying to deal with large government firms or large companies about how to properly implement environmental processes when I have so much rage bottled up inside me? Somehow, (I sit here shaking my head to myself), I don’t see that as having a really good ending.
Ah well … we shall see. I regret a relatively negative post this time. I’ll try to do better at the beginning of the new year.
I do though indeed, wish everybody the best of the holiday season. 😊
